FINANCE
Steady in the Storm: Managing Financial Risk in Uncertain Economic Times
Establishing an acceptable forecasting range aids in planning for a variety of case scenarios
By Scooter Thomas
Propane marketers have always built their businesses around things they cannot control. Weather. Wholesale price swings. A season that decides whether the whole year works.
What has changed is the cost of money. Rate uncertainty now sits alongside those older variables, and it reaches further into the business than owners tend to expect: the note on the new bobtail, the line of credit that funds prebuy, the terms on a storage addition that looked routine two years ago.
I work with business owners on questions like these, and a useful habit is to plan around a range rather than a single forecast.
From a Single Number to a Range
Nearly every marketer forecasts price. That is table stakes, and the forecast drives cost of goods sold right down to the margin line.
The more useful question comes after: How wrong can the forecast be before being wrong actually costs you something? Before it reaches payroll. Before it reaches debt service. Before it shelves the expansion you had planned for spring.
Call that window your tolerance band. How wide it runs depends on customer mix, contract structure and how much cash sits on the balance sheet. A marketer whose book skews residential and fixed-price has a very different band than one serving agricultural accounts at spot. Neither position is better. They are different and they call for different decisions.
Owners with thin reserves carry the narrowest bands, which is exactly when hedging feels most expensive. Protection on the downside costs you upside, and in a year when prices break your way, that cost stings. Make the trade deliberately rather than by default. A narrow band still beats no band at all.
One wrinkle deserves naming. Your tolerance band gets built on payroll, debt service and growth assumptions, and those assumptions usually trace back to the same price forecast the band exists to protect you from. The logic bites its own tail a little. That is less a problem to solve than a reason to run the same thinking up one level to how you borrow.
Applying the Same Logic to Debt
Financing tends to get judged against the rate environment on the day you sign, as though that is the environment you will live in for the next seven years.
Run it against three scenarios instead: rates roughly where they are now, rates easing over the coming year and rates climbing again over the next 12 to 24 months. If the bobtail, the storage addition or the territory purchase only works in one of those three, you want that on the table before closing rather than after.
None of this argues against borrowing. Growth in propane almost always takes debt. It argues for structuring the loan so the business holds up across more than one version of the next five years.
The Range Doesn’t Stop at the Business’s Edge
Here’s where I see the gap most often. Owners get disciplined about pricing. They get disciplined about financing. Then, they treat their personal balance sheet as though it lives somewhere else entirely. In most family-owned propane businesses, it doesn’t. Personal guarantees on equipment notes, home equity pledged as collateral, retirement savings concentrated in the value of the company itself — that is one exposure wearing two hats.
A tolerance band can carry payroll and debt service through a warm winter and still tell you nothing about whether your retirement date survives it. Or a child’s tuition. Or your ability to sell on your own timeline instead of someone else’s. Those questions relate to each other, but they aren’t the same question, and it pays to check every so often whether they have quietly collapsed into one.
Making the Range a Habit, Not a 1-Time Exercise
Recognition is a powerful motivator. When employees see their incremental improvements are noticed and valued, they’ll be more likely to keep innovating.
Practical TipNone of this works as a one-time exercise. Pricing lives with operations. Financing lives with whoever handles the bank relationship. Cash flow gets managed against whatever feels most urgent that month. Left in separate lanes, the three drift apart, and the drift usually goes unnoticed until something forces a look.
The owners who ride out uncertainty most calmly review all of it together on a schedule. Quarterly suits most operations. It takes no finance department, just one recurring question: If conditions moved hard against this business, what would have to be true for our pricing, our debt, our cash position and my own financial plan to hold? Then, fix whatever the answer exposes while fixing it is still cheap.
Conditions will keep moving — that is not in question. Planning for a range of outcomes may help turn some unexpected developments into adjustments rather than crises.
Practical Takeaways for Propane Marketers
- Plan around a band, not a number: Size it to what payroll, debt service and growth can actually absorb, then let your contracts, hedges and prebuys work inside it.
- Stress-test financing before you sign: Run every loan against at least two rate scenarios, not just the one sitting in front of you on closing day.
- Watch your circular logic: Your tolerance band, your borrowing capacity and your growth plans all lean on each other. Review them together, or you will fool yourself.
- Give your own balance sheet the same treatment: Personal guarantees and retirement savings concentrated in company value mean the business plan does not automatically cover you.
- Get it on the calendar: Quarterly beats waiting for a bad stretch to force the conversation.
No plan makes the propane business predictable. But planning around a range of futures may help a business prepare for volatility and respond more deliberately when conditions change.
Author’s Note: This is intended for informational purposes only. You should not assume that any discussion or information contained in this document serves as the receipt of, or as a substitute for, personalized investment advice from Savant. Please consult your investment professional regarding your unique situation.
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